Welcome Guest. Sign in or Signup

1 Answers

Isn’t a strong world reserve currency a contradiction in terms?

Asked by: Trader 109 views , , , , , ,
Day Trading

In order to circulate abroad in any quantity, a currency must become widely available there. How is that possible without a large entrenched deficit on foreign trade? Is not therefore the common use of a currency in world trade a sign in itself that the issuing country’s best days are over?

It was reported today, that the Chinese government has objections against the permanent use of the US dollar for world trade and would like to see it gradually replaced by China’s own currency. But isn’t this idea based on a misconception?

Their currency may now be perceived as strong, but wouldn’t it be necessary to destroy that strength before its widespread use in world trade becomes possible?

Am I missing something?
@ simplicitus: All very good points — thanks!

Regardless of all its own problems, a gold standard certainly has its advantages!

In a sense, importing gold for newly issued currency constitutes deficit spending, too, but it is certainly no sign of economic weakness.

If it were done that way (and you are obviously right that it would take a long time), a yuan could eventually be essentially a pawn broker’s ticket for a certain amount of gold.

There is always the risk that the broker will eventually repudiate the ticket (just like the Nixon administration), but that has to be a smaller risk than a currency not backed with anything.

Conversely, being able to issue such a currency and accumulate gold has to be preferable to unsecured lending by buying foreign government bonds, thereby encouraging unsustainable budget deficits in addition to weak foreign trade.

1 Answers



  1. simplicitus on Feb 10, 2011 Reply

    Yes, you are missing reality.

    Just after World War II, the U.S. had a thriving economy and, as a result, a strong dollar – so strong that it was still tied to gold. That was also why the U.S. dollar was made the official reserve currency.
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bretton_Woods_system
    It was only in August of 1971 that the U.S. broke the dollar’s peg to gold.
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nixon_Shock#The_shock

    At that time of Bretton Woods and through the 1960s, the U.S. was still running a trade surplus. It was only starting in 1971 that the U.S. began running a trade deficit:
    http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/statistics/historical/gands.pdf

    As for China, it has capital controls. As long as it does, no one would think of using it as a reserve currency. But if it abolishes capital controls and lets capital move in and out freely, then it can begin to be a reserve currency in the way the euro, the British pound and the Japanese yen already are.
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reserve_currency

    And if China’s economy continues to grow, then it does have a chance of becoming the primary reserve currency, the numeraire
    http://www.open-thinking.com/2010/07/recession-and-politics-long-tedious.html
    But that won’t be for decades.

    0 Votes Thumb up 0 Votes Thumb down 0 Votes


Answer Question

Powered by Yahoo! Answers